REGIONAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTIVITY IN MATO GROSSO IN THE 2024/25 CROP SEASON AND ITS IMPACTS ON COST PER BAG AND BREAK-EVEN POINT: INDICATORS FOR AGRONOMIC DECISION-MAKING

Abstract

Regional soybean productivity in Mato Grosso determines costs and economic resilience, requiring integrated indicators to guide agronomic and commercial decisions. This study aimed to quantify productivity by IMEA macroregion and estimate its effects on cost per bag, break-even point, and safety margin, using the average price of the 2024/25 crop season. The study is observational, based on secondary IMEA data for soybean production in Mato Grosso, 2024/25 crop season, stratified by macroregions: Center-South, Mid-North, Northeast, Northwest, North, West, and Southeast. An economic-commercial window from September 2024 to October 2025 was defined. Consolidated productivity, area, and production by macroregion were extracted from the historical series; monthly prices and commercialization data were aggregated by weighted average according to regional production. Cost per bag, break-even point based on operating costs, margin over operating costs, and safety margin were calculated, with sensitivity to price (±10%) and productivity (±5%). Regional productivity ranged from 63.70 to 68.84 bags/ha, and the weighted average price for the period was R$112.41/bag. With operating costs of R$3,969.90/ha, the cost per bag/break-even point ranged from R$57.67/bag in the Mid-North to R$62.32/bag in the Northeast, showing that higher yields dilute operating costs and increase margins and the safety margin. The sensitivity analysis showed a strong influence of price (±10%) and a consistent effect of productivity variations (±5%) on unit cost and economic robustness. Productivity differences among macroregions explain relevant variations in cost per bag and in the break-even point based on operating costs. More productive regions have lower unit costs and higher safety margins. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the joint importance of productivity and price for economic resilience. The study contributes by integrating IMEA indicators into operational metrics for agronomic decision-making. Its limitation lies in the use of a single statewide operating cost; future analyses should incorporate regionalized costs and COE/COT/CT.