GRAVITATIONAL MODEL IN THE TRADE BALANCE IN MOZAMBIQUE: 2000 – 2020

Abstract

This article reflects on “Gravity Model and Mozambique’s Trade Balance: 2000 – 2020” resulting from a research within the scope of the PhD program in Economics, whose objective focused on analyzing the applicability of the gravity model in understanding the determinants and patterns of international trade of Mozambique and its trading partners between 2000 and 2020. Using this analytical approach, the research examines the country’s economic growth and the influence of trade relations on the performance of the trade balance. The gravity model, widely used in international trade studies, is employed to estimate the relationship of economic convergence between Mozambique and its cooperation partners, considering variables such as geographical distance, population size, price index, language sharing and participation in economic blocs. The analysis reveals that, despite the trade partnerships signed, Mozambique maintained persistent trade deficits throughout the period. The results indicate that the gravity model was effective in determining the country's trade flows, showing that Mozambique benefited from global trade both in the export of its products and in the import of essential goods. However, imports exceeded exports, reinforcing external dependence. Furthermore, factors such as foreign direct investment and exchange rate played a significant role in economic growth. The conclusions highlight the need for strategic policies to strengthen international trade and promote economic cooperation as instruments to drive sustainable development.