STUDY OF MORTALITY DUE TO MALIGNANT NEOPLASMS OF THE PANCREAS IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 2018 AND 2022

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic neoplasia is a disease with a very unfavorable prognosis, as it has a survival rate of less than 10% within 5 years after diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile of deaths due to malignant neoplasia of the pancreas in Brazil between 2018 and 2022, as well as to analyze annual forecasts from 2023 to 2025. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The present epidemiological study is characterized as ecological, analytical and descriptive, which for the construction of the epidemiological profile, using the following variables as evaluation criteria: year of death, region, sex, age group 2 and country. Data classified as ICD-BR-10 were evaluated: 037 malignant neoplasms of the pancreas. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For the years 2018 to 2022, mortality rates are provided, ranging from 5.32 per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2018, 5.62 in 2019 and 2020, to 5.61 in 2021, and 5.89 in 2022. For subsequent years ( 2023 to 2025), forecasts are presented accompanied by the respective confidence limits. Forecasts are 5.86 in 2023 (95% CI: 5.58-6.14) and 5.82 in 2024 (95% CI: 5.53-6.10) and 6.00 in 2025 (95% CI: 5.72 to 6.29). FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: There is an evident annual increase in deaths due to malignant neoplasia of the pancreas and predictions that this will tend to increase in the coming years. Furthermore, the region with the highest mortality rates from the disease was the South, while the North had the lowest. Mortality was higher among males, and increased with age, with the age group of 80 years or more being the most affected.