RISK, WAR AND MARKET: THE MIDDLE EAST UNDER THE LOGIC OF PRIVATE INTERNATIONAL LAW

Resumo

This study examines how armed conflicts in the Middle East reshape legal and economic risks affecting transnational markets under the framework of Private International Law. The objective is to analyse how geopolitical instability influences contractual predictability, the determination of applicable law, and jurisdictional choices in international economic relations. The research adopts a qualitative approach of a theoretical-analytical nature, with exploratory and explanatory character, based on specialised literature review and documentary analysis of contractual practices and normative instruments. The investigation articulates Private International Law categories with Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics, empirically identifying patterns of risk management, such as the recurrent use of force majeure and hardship clauses, as well as the redefinition of business strategies in contexts of persistent uncertainty. The findings indicate that risk does not operate as an external factor but as a structuring component of transnational legal relations, directly influencing the organisation of global markets. Economic actors incorporate political variables into their decisions, continuously adjusting contracts and operations in order to maintain commercial stability. It is preliminarily concluded that armed conflicts act as structuring factors of legal risk, reshaping contractual and normative practices while simultaneously inducing private mechanisms of adaptation within contemporary global markets.