Vaccination indicators and risk of vaccine-preventable diseases in infants under one year of age in Roraima

Abstract

This study analyzed National Immunization Program indicators among infants under one year and vaccine-preventable disease transmission risk in Roraima municipalities, Brazil, from 2010 to 2025. This ecological time-series study assessed coverage, homogeneity, dropout and risk classification for eight vaccines using Prais-Winsten regression. Coverage decreased only for yellow fever (annual percent change: −4.3%; p=0.013). Dropout decreased for rotavirus (−0.7 percentage point/year; p=0.005), while homogeneity decreased for poliomyelitis (−2.7 percentage points/year; p=0.032). Risk categories with estimable trends remained stationary. In 2025, only BCG and hepatitis B at birth exceeded targets, no vaccine achieved adequate homogeneity, and 13 of 15 municipalities had high or very high risk. Findings indicate municipal inequalities and the need for territorially targeted monitoring, active outreach and improved vaccination records.